This paper tries to present a cautious evaluation of the ongoing uprisings
against the various authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and North Africa, in
countries so different as Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain, Yemen, Syria or Libya. It is
noting the fact that millions of young participants in the uprisings are not organized
politically, real secular political parties do not exist or are extremely weak, and
therefore warns about the threat from the organized radical Islamist movements as
potential winners in these internal conflicts. It also tries to explain why the “Turkish
model†of the Islamist AKP government is not the best solution to this revolutionary
wave. The paper mentions the importance of the new networking media in the
development of the events but not as a sine qua non condition for success, as the
anti-democratic Islamists also skillfully use it. Finally, it warns about the threat to
the existing peace agreements between Israel and its Arab neighbors and the possibility
that the theocratic regime in Iran could be the real winner of the situation.
